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Feb 19 2020

Hurricane waves

Hurricane waves




Hurricane waves-Hurricane waves
Hurricane waves-Both tropical waves currently have a low chance for development over the next five days.



Hurricane season: National Hurricane Center tracking tropical wave that’s approaching Florida

The 2019 hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. Here are the storm names for the upcoming season. Maureen Kenyon, [email protected]

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a couple of tropical waves, one approaching Florida and the other currently moving west off the coast of Africa.

The first tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea remains disorganized but chances for development could improve as it nears Florida over the weekend.

Interactive map: Track active storms

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

This system is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next several days, producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Caribbean and the Bahamas.

Some heavy showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of PR this morning associated with #95L which remains disorganized and has little chance (NHC 10%) of developing. pic.twitter.com/Y3gsNCNEs1

Conditions could become marginally conducive for development by the weekend when the disturbance moves near Florida and northwestern Bahamas.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days: 10 percent.

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A second tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce a broad area of showers.

No significant development of this system is expected for the next few days while it moves west at 15 to 20 mph.

Upper-level winds could become more conducive for development by the weekend while the wave continues westward across the central Atlantic.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days: 20 percent.

Hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons are the same weather phenomenon; tropical cyclones. Ginny Beagan, TCPALM

Tropical waves

Here’s a look all the tropical waves in the Atlantic basin mentioned by the Hurricane Center:

  • An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W from 04N-16N, moving west around 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave axis from 06N-13N between 22W-28W. Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for development by the weekend, and there is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next five days as the system continues westward.
  • An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 02N-20N, moving west around 10 knots. Scattered showers are from 05N-12N between 35W- 42W.
  • An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 02N-17N, moving west around 10 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N-10N between 45W-54W.
  • A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 07N-22N, moving west around 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N-22N between 62W-69W, including near and north of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also along the southern part of the wave south of 12N and over Venezuela. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and portions of the southeast Bahamas during the next few days. Over the weekend, conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near Flor ,[3,3], [2,6]]’>

Impact on Flor >A tropical disturbance that has been drifting over the Caribbean since this past weekend is forecast to drift northwestward toward Florida and may gather some strength along the way this week.

The wave has the potential to become the fourth tropical depression of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season and may go on to become a tropical storm as the week progresses, said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

Before then, though, the wave faces Hispaniola. The mountains there may be enough to keep the system from organizing.

Tropical waves from the coast of Africa are the leading source of tropical storm formation during hurricane season, which peaks in September. One such wave emerged from Africa at the start of this week: https://t.co/dv5Y3Qd4PApic.twitter.com/4Dcatc2Ugt

Should the feature survive the encounter with Hispaniola, conditions may be such to allow for organization and modest strengthening as it moves northwestward through the Bahamas and approaches the Florida Peninsula during the second half of the week.

Wind shear is forecast to be somewhat lower north of Hispaniola to just southeast of Florida.

Tropical conditions 2 p.m. July 30, 2019 (Photo: TCPALM)

“Assuming the system has held together or has organized, wind shear is forecast to increase right near and northeast of Florida late this week and into this weekend,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rathbun said.

Not only may this cause the system to weaken, but it may also steer it to the northeast and out to sea over the western Atlantic.

How close to Florida the system gets and how organized it gets is uncertain during the period from Friday to Sunday.

Scenarios range from the feature curving away just east of the peninsula to tracking right over the peninsula to wandering a bit farther west and briefly into the Gulf of Mexico, according to AccuWeather.

In the Pacific

Hurricane Erick 11 a.m. July 30, 2019 (Photo: GRAPHIC CONTRIBUTED BY NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER)

Erick has become a major hurricane in the Pacific.

  • Location: 920 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii
  • Maximum sustained winds: 115 mph
  • Movement: west at 17 mph

At 11 a.m., the center of Hurricane Erick was located 920 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii.

Erick is moving toward the west near 17 mph. A turn toward the west-northwest at a slightly slower forward speed is expected later today. This west-northwest motion is forecast to continue through Thursday.

#Erick has become a major hurricane far East-southeast of Hawaii with winds of 115 mph. This system is not likely to cause direct impacts to Hawaii. Winds are forecasted to peak near 125 mph. pic.twitter.com/zO0rlIZamT

— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) July 30, 2019

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph, with higher gusts. Erick is now a category 3 hurricane, which is a major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected later today.

By Wednesday, gradual weakening is possible, with a more rapid weakening trend expected on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

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Hurricane waves




SOURCE: http://www.floridatoday.com/story/weather/hurricanes/2019/07/30/hurricane-season-tracking-tropical-waves-caribbean-atlantic/1864617001/


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Hurricane waves

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